Adaptive Optimal Scaling of Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms Using the Robbins-Monro Process

We present an adaptive method for the automatic scaling of Random-Walk Metropolis-Hastings algorithms, which quickly and robustly identifies the scaling factor that yields a specified overall sampler acceptance probability. Our method relies on the use of the Robbins-Monro search process, whose performance is determined by an unknown steplength constant. We give a very simple estimator of this constant for proposal distributions that are univariate or multivariate normal, together with a sampling algorithm for automating the method. The effectiveness of the algorithm is demonstrated with both simulated and real data examples. This approach could be implemented as a useful component in more complex adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, or as part of automated software packages

Bayes linear kinematics in the analysis of failure rates and failure time distributions

Collections of related Poisson or binomial counts arise, for example, from a number of different failures in similar machines or neighbouring time periods. A conventional Bayesian analysis requires a rather indirect prior specification and intensive numerical methods for posterior evaluations. An alternative approach using Bayes linear kinematics in which simple conjugate specifications for individual counts are linked through a Bayes linear belief structure is presented. Intensive numerical methods are not required. The use of transformations of the binomial and Poisson parameters is proposed. The approach is illustrated in two examples, one involving a Poisson count of failures, the other involving a binomial count in an analysis of failure times

PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment

Many applications in the evaluation of climate impacts and environmental policy require detailed spatio-temporal projections of future climate. To capture feedbacks from impacted natural or socio-economic systems requires interactive two-way coupling, but this is generally computationally infeasible with even moderately complex general circulation models (GCMs). Dimension reduction using emulation is one solution to this problem, demonstrated here with the GCM PLASIM-ENTS (Planet Simulator coupled with the efficient numerical terrestrial scheme). Our approach generates temporally evolving spatial patterns of climate variables, considering multiple modes of variability in order to capture non-linear feedbacks. The emulator provides a 188-member ensemble of decadally and spatially resolved (~ 5◦ resolution) seasonal climate data in response to an arbitrary future CO2 concentration and non-CO2 radiative forcing scenario. We present the PLASIM-ENTS coupled model, the construction of its emulator from an ensemble of transient future simulations, an application of the emulator methodology to produce heating and cooling degree-day projections, the validation of the simulator (with respect to empirical data) and the validation of the emulator (with respect to high-complexity models). We also demonstrate the application to estimates of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty

Evaluation of elicitation methods to quantify Bayes linear models

The Bayes linear methodology allows decision makers to express their subjective beliefs and adjust these beliefs as observations are made. It is similar in spirit to probabilistic Bayesian approaches, but differs as it uses expectation as its primitive. While substantial work has been carried out in Bayes linear analysis, both in terms of theory development and application, there is little published material on the elicitation of structured expert judgement to quantify models. This paper investigates different methods that could be used by analysts when creating an elicitation process. The theoretical underpinnings of the elicitation methods developed are explored and an evaluation of their use is presented. This work was motivated by, and is a precursor to, an industrial application of Bayes linear modelling of the reliability of defence systems. An illustrative example demonstrates how the methods can be used in practice

The normalisation of Food Aid: What happened to feeding people well?

In the UK, food poverty has increased in the last 15 years and the food aid supply chain that has emerged to tackle it is now roughly 10 years old. In this time, we have seen the food aid supply chain grow at a rate that has astounded many.  Recently that growth has been aided by a grant of £20m from a large supermarket chain. It appears institutionalisation is just around the corner, if not already here. It also appears that there is far greater emphasis on dealing with  the symptoms as opposed to solving the root causes of the problem. As an opinion piece, this paper reflects on some of the prevalent issues, and suggests some ways forward

Who knows best? A Q methodology study to explore perspectives of professional stakeholders and community participants on health in low-income communities

Abstract Background Health inequalities in the UK have proved to be stubborn, and health gaps between best and worst-off are widening. While there is growing understanding of how the main causes of poor health are perceived among different stakeholders, similar insight is lacking regarding what solutions should be prioritised. Furthermore, we do not know the relationship between perceived causes and solutions to health inequalities, whether there is agreement between professional stakeholders and people living in low-income communities or agreement within these groups. Methods Q methodology was used to identify and describe the shared perspectives (‘subjectivities’) that exist on i) why health is worse in low-income communities (‘Causes’) and ii) the ways that health could be improved in these same communities (‘Solutions’). Purposively selected individuals (n = 53) from low-income communities (n = 25) and professional stakeholder groups (n = 28) ranked ordered sets of statements – 34 ‘Causes’ and 39 ‘Solutions’ – onto quasi-normal shaped grids according to their point of view. Factor analysis was used to identify shared points of view. ‘Causes’ and ‘Solutions’ were analysed independently, before examining correlations between perspectives on causes and perspectives on solutions. Results Analysis produced three factor solutions for both the ‘Causes’ and ‘Solutions’. Broadly summarised these accounts for ‘Causes’ are: i) ‘Unfair Society’, ii) ‘Dependent, workless and lazy’, iii) ‘Intergenerational hardships’ and for ‘Solutions’: i) ‘Empower communities’, ii) ‘Paternalism’, iii) ‘Redistribution’. No professionals defined (i.e. had a significant association with one factor only) the ‘Causes’ factor ‘Dependent, workless and lazy’ and the ‘Solutions’ factor ‘Paternalism’. No community participants defined the ‘Solutions’ factor ‘Redistribution’. The direction of correlations between the two sets of factor solutions – ‘Causes’ and ‘Solutions’ – appear to be intuitive, given the accounts identified. Conclusions Despite the plurality of views there was broad agreement across accounts about issues relating to money. This is important as it points a way forward for tackling health inequalities, highlighting areas for policy and future research to focus on

A novel long non-coding natural antisense RNA is a negative regulator of Nos1 gene expression

Long non-coding natural antisense transcripts (NATs) are widespread in eukaryotic species. Although recent studies indicate that long NATs are engaged in the regulation of gene expression, the precise functional roles of the vast majority of them are unknown. Here we report that a long NAT (Mm-antiNos1 RNA) complementary to mRNA encoding the neuronal isoform of nitric oxide synthase (Nos1) is expressed in the mouse brain and is transcribed from the non-template strand of the Nos1 locus. Nos1 produces nitric oxide (NO), a major signaling molecule in the CNS implicated in many important functions including neuronal differentiation and memory formation. We show that the newly discovered NAT negatively regulates Nos1 gene expression. Moreover, our quantitative studies of the temporal expression profiles of Mm-antiNos1 RNA in the mouse brain during embryonic development and postnatal life indicate that it may be involved in the regulation of NO-dependent neurogenesis

A comparision of GHG emissions from UK field crop production under selected arable systems with reference to disease control

Crop disease not only threatens global food security by reducing crop production at a time of growing demand, but also contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by reducing efficiency of N fertiliser use and farm operations and by driving land use change. GHG emissions associated with adoption of reduced tillage, organic and integrated systems of field crop production across the UK and selected regions are compared with emissions from conventional arable farming to assess their potential for climate change mitigation. The reduced tillage system demonstrated a modest (<20%) reduction in emissions in all cases, although in practice it may not be suitable for all soils and it is likely to cause problems with control of diseases spread on crop debris. There were substantial increases in GHG emissions associated with the organic and integrated systems at national level, principally due to soil organic carbon losses from land use change. At a regional level the integrated system shows the potential to deliver significant emission reductions. These results indicate that the conventional crop production system, coupled to reduced tillage cultivation where appropriate, is generally the best for producing high yields to minimise greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to global food security, although there may be scope for use of the integrated system on a regional basis. The control of crop disease will continue to have an essential role in both maintaining productivity and decreasing GHG emissions.Peer reviewe